America’s future may look a lot like Texas. That’s a great thing. | Opinion

America’s future may look a lot like Texas. That’s a great thing. | Opinion

Blue states appear on track to lose a dozen seats in the U.S. House − and with them 12 Electoral College votes − after reapportionment is completed based on the 2030 Census.

Donald Trump’s victory wasn’t as overwhelming as Ronald Reagan’s in 1984 − when the incumbent president won 49 states. But the nation has clearly shifted to the right since President Barack Obama won a second term in 2012.

Trump won more than 60% of the states, including all seven battleground states. Republicans also won both the U.S. House and Senate, control 27 governor’s offices and hold nearly 800 more state legislative seats than Democrats across the country.

It’s clear that America is outgrowing the left − demographically and, I hope, metaphorically.

In fact, America’s future might look a lot like my home state of Texas. And that is a great thing.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks on stage on the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Red states are growing in population

Trump outperformed the forecast of most pollsters, easily winning not only the Electoral College but also the popular vote by about 2.5 million ballots.

Trump flipped six states − Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin − from 2020 to 2024. That feat won him a return to the White House.

Even worse for progressives, it may well be a leading indicator of things to come as blue states like California and New York lose population and deep red states like Florida and Texas continue to grow at a rapid rate.

From left, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and President-elect Donald Trump at the launch of a test flight of the Starship rocket on Nov. 19, 2024, in Brownsville, Texas.

In an article for Chronicles magazine, “Why Democrats are Losing Tomorrow’s Elections Today,” writer Daniel McCarthy detailed the demographic shifts that could hand Republicans a decided advantage in future elections.

“Blue states are shedding population and will have less representation in Congress and fewer votes in the Electoral College after the next Census,” McCarthy wrote. “Two nonpartisan nonprofits, the Brennan Center for Justice and the American Redistricting Project, crunched the numbers last year and came to conclusions that ought to shock Democrats into changing the way they govern places like California and New York.”

Blue states appear on track to lose a dozen seats in the U.S. House − and with them 12 Electoral College votes − after reapportionment is completed based on the 2030 Census.

Those numbers could mean big changes in politics and policy in the future, with Republicans having demographic advantages in winning the White House and the House of Representatives as Americans flee progressive states like California, Illinois and New York and conservative states like Florida, Texas and South Carolina continue to grow rapidly.

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McCarthy noted that California might lose four House seats and Electoral College votes, New York could lose three and Illinois may lose two. Three other blue states − Oregon, Minnesota and Rhode Island − could lose one each.

As a native Minnesotan, I’ve been sad to see the state decline as Gov. Tim Walz implemented his progressive policies, including tax increases. If the North Star state loses an Electoral College vote, it will have Walz and his progressive allies to blame.

In contrast, Texas might gain four U.S. House seats and Electoral College votes; Florida could gain three.

The very fabric of America may change as conservative states continue to gain in population and political power.

But what about America’s growing diversity?

Under the leadership of Gov. Greg Abbott, Texas' economy is growing faster than the rest of the nation's.

For decades, Democrats believed that America’s growing ethnic and racial diversity favored their own destiny. The GOP was the party of old, white voters whose influence would naturally wane as time elapsed.

Trump just blew up that narrative, winning far more young and minority voters than most observers thought was possible.

If you were surprised by this, don’t beat yourself up. Most of the legacy news media missed the story before Election Day, perhaps because they overwhelmingly lean to the left.

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The entertainment industry also is almost entirely operated by progressives, producing movies, TV shows and other creative content from that perspective. That means, from Netflix series to late night talk shows, the scripts, the plots and the featured celebrities almost always promote a leftist slant.

Consider how many television shows or movies have a main character who is conservative, intelligent and shown in a positive light? If you can’t come up with many, or any, that’s my point.

With few exceptions, when conservatives are represented in television and movies, they are portrayed as weird and hateful.

I can see why progressives believe they have more influence than they actually have. The news media and entertainment industry show them an America that largely doesn’t exist outside Manhattan and Hollywood.

This also explains why many Republicans have turned to podcasts as their sources of news. They didn’t see themselves reflected in the news and entertainment industries, so they created and migrated to their own platforms.

Texas and Florida are booming

Voters are increasingly supporting Republicans and conservative states are growing for good reasons. Look at Texas and Florida.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 16: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks on stage on the second day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 16, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Under the leadership of Gov. Greg Abbott, Texas’ economy is growing faster than the rest of the nation’s. Under Gov. Ron DeSantis, Florida ranks No. 1 in higher education. Neither state has an income tax, and the cost of living is relatively low. In fact, the worst thing about both states is the heat, but warm winters also attract a lot of newcomers who are fleeing the North.

And conservatives dominate both Florida and Texas − holding every statewide office in each state, strong majorities in the state legislatures and lopsided majorities of each congressional delegation.

Of course, no state is perfect, and I’m biased, but Texas is close.

My state prioritizes the freedom of its residents. Almost all legislative policy is crafted with that in mind.

The state was hardly locked down during the COVID-19 pandemic, law-abiding and eligible citizens can openly carry firearms and school choice may soon (I hope) pave the way for our kids’ educational future.

If America becomes more like Texas, it will be a great thing. In fact, it increasingly seems to be what most Americans want.

Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. Sign up for her newsletter, The Right Track, and get it delivered to your inbox.

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